India Trade Balance May 2022

Merchandise exports soared 20.6% in annual terms in May, on the heels of April’s 30.7% upturn. Meanwhile, merchandise imports shot up 62.8% over the same month last year in May (April: +31.0% yoy), marking the strongest reading since September 2021.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 24.3 billion deficit in May (April 2022: USD 20.1 billion deficit; May 2021: USD 6.5 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 222.3 billion deficit in May, compared to the USD 204.3 billion deficit in April.

In FY 2022, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 7.9% and 13.7%, respectively, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 251 billion. In FY 2023, our panelists forecast that exports will increase 3.5%, while imports will shrink 0.2%, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 232 billion.

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